Criminal Toxicology – Demand Capacity and Performance

Demand

Q1 demand saw an average case submission rate of 318 cases per month with 144 cases submitted above maximum internal capacity within this quarter. Q2 has seen a rise in the levels of submission with the average submission rate within the quarter of 325 cases per month. Overall, within Q2, 166 cases were submitted above the maximum internal capacity. This level of demand is 16% above the 270-case maximum when measured over the last six months.

The gap, when measured against demand, between the combined internal and outsource output May and June 2025 highlighted within the previous quarter report has, as predicted, been subsequently closed with a combination of increased internal output supported with an increase in outsource provision thus ensuring compliance with STLs. The increase in demand in September will remain supported via an increase in outsource provision. Its worthy of note that continued demand above agreed capacity will require additional outsource support.

Capacity

Internal output remains consistently close to maximum stretch capacity, with a Q2 average of 279 drug driving cases completed per month. Further increases in internal output are unlikely due to reaching the existing maximum capacity levels within the reporting cadre of the criminal toxicology team.

Outsource partners have continued to provide additional support over Q2 2025/26, resulting in an output of 166 cases across the quarter (from the predicted 200).

Average combined output in Q2 2025-26 was 334 cases per month. The average demand over the same period was 325 cases per month. The small shortfall reported in the last quarter has, as predicted, now been recovered as evidenced by the higher output v demand data.

Internal caseload remains in a strong position as illustrated below. Of the 4 late cases detailed 2 were completed within target but are showing open and late due to an admin error (now resolved), one is a late submission from Police Scotland and is now closed and the final case is ongoing due to the complex analysis requested.

Outsourcing

At the time of writing, Forensic Services continue to be supported by a single [external] supplier. Scheduled outsourcing is used to support staff abstraction during development work planned throughout the year and is managed through an existing budget allocation. Increases in demand over the forecasted levels require additional outsourcing (or a reduction in development activity) when internal capacity requires augmented. This additional outsourcing comes at a financial cost, not forecast within the annual budget.

Reliance on a single provider and the associated unpredictable demand across Scotland, and the rest of the UK, has resulted in this being identified as a risk. To support mitigating the risk, communication and engagement with the external provider remains regular and consistent to ensure any potential escalation is identified at the earliest opportunity.

In this regard, the most recent engagement with the FS external supplier provides continued assurance in relation to outsourcing requirements up to 100 samples per month.  Additional capacity has been made available from Q2 2025-26 however, this has not been required to date due to the delay in the development work ongoing within the lab reducing the staff abstraction from casework.

External supplier engagement remains ongoing with short and medium-term options subject to further discussions and dependant on available budget.

SPA FS have reallocated £166K from revenue budget to increase the outsource budget to ~£466K to ensure sufficient funds are available to cope with the anticipated increase in demand (outwith the PSoS drug driving pilot) in FY 2025-2026.

Performance

Internal performance for Section 5a cases remains on target with the rolling average meeting the 95% target and, the Q2 average reporting at 99.67%.

Some technical challenges (now resolved) impacted the internal performance for Section 4 cases over Q2 resulting in 75% of Section 4 cases meeting the 90-day target.

The proportion of Section 4 work sits at around 3% of our total drug driving caseload – a low proportion of the total drug driving workload.